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PORTLAND, OREGON (BLOOMBERG)- Suddenly, bitcoin seems a bit boring.
It might be hard to believe. But
after the 1,400 per cent rally of 2017, with wild swings along the way,
the great crypto craze has cooled, at least for now.
For the past month, bitcoin's price has stalled between US$8,500 (S$ 11,134) and US$11,300 - a minuscule range by its standards.
And Internet searches for "bitcoin" have plunged, suggesting public interest has, too.
"The general public is now realising
that this is not a risk-free, get-rich-quick, investment opportunity
and general interest has since diminished," said Lucas Nuzzi, a senior
analyst at Digital Asset Research.
The 2018 lull shows just how quickly
investment fads can come and go. Gone for now are the days when bitcoin
dominated talk at holiday tables. Stories lately look a lot like the
ones in the back sections of financial papers - dry accounts of
regulatory scrutiny, market structure and legal wrangling.
Online searches for "bitcoin" fell 82 per cent from December highs, according to Google Trends.
Tweets that mention the coin peaked
Dec 7, at 155,600, and are now down to about 63,000, BitInfoCharts says.
And the number of bitcoin transactions is off 60 per cent from its
record on Dec. 13, according to Blockchain.info.
December brought "Bitcoin Craze Propels Coinbase App to No 1 in Apple's Store".
Now there's "Bitcoin's Wildest Days
Are Over as Regulators Circle". Indeed, bitcoin's been in the news for
all the wrong reasons lately.
Its price slumped on Wednesday after
Google said it would prohibit cryptocurrency ads, following Facebook's
move from January. Major banks including JPMorgan and Bank of America
banned crypto purchases on their credit cards, the Securities and
Exchange Commission has stepped up cryptocurrency oversight and Congress
is holding hearings on how to treat the digital coins.
Earlier this month, Allianz Global Investors argued the the coin's "intrinsic value must be zero."
"The story with bitcoin is pretty
straightforward," said Roger Kay, president of research firm Endpoint
Technologies Associates Inc. "It went up fast, and then came down even
faster. Consumers who flocked to it late got burned. They are in the
shadows now, licking their wounds. And others contemplating how to get
rich quick are acutely aware that what goes up can come down, and maybe
bitcoin isn't the way to go about it."
Of course, bitcoin's obituary has
been written countless times in its nine-year existence. In fact, 111
such stories appeared last year when it was on a tear, according to
99bitcoins.com. Almost 40 have been written so far in 2018, on track to
top that level.
Still, just Wednesday, people
familiar with the matter said hedge fund billionaire Alan Howard made
sizable personal investments in cryptocurrencies last year.
And even Allianz doesn't think
bitcoin is done for, not as long as the number of speculators and crypto
true believers remains high.
Coinbase says it still has more than 20 million customers, though it is not clear how many have been active recently.
And this is not bitcoin's first
slump. It's had at least three declines of 70 per cent or more since
2010 only to come back with a vengeance and reach higher highs.
For now, though, boring might be the
new normal as the decline in public interest could leave bitcoin in
what for it could be considered a tight range. Remember, after a rally
boosted its price 84-fold in 2013, it tumbled back down in the next week
and held there until lifting off again in 2017